IRCC Long-Term Paddy Purchase Forecast (2027–2033)

2033 Organic Purchases

4,411 MT

↑ +21.4% vs 2026 (3,633 MT)

2033 Selling Farmers

2,064 farmers

↑ +364 organic sellers net

Steady-State Transition Volume

5,211 MT / yr

From 1,179 in-conversion farmers (Yr 0, 1, 2)

Annual Transition Incentive

$109,142

≈ 447.5 Million KHR (@ 4,100 KHR/$)

Organic Purchases: Actuals & Forecast

2022–2033

Actual purchases (2022–2025) with 2026 near-term forecast & 2027–2033 projections by variety.

Farmer Pipeline by Status

Active headcounts across Organic, WF, Ibis I & Ibis II (11.59% NC rate; 2026 base = 2,564).

Paddy Purchase & Farmer Forecast Table (2026 - 2033)

What-If Supply Scenarios (2026–2033)

How organic paddy supply changes depending on new farmer intake and Non-Compliance (NC) rates.

Best Case → 6,247 MT (2033)

Recruit 650 new farmers/yr & lower NC to 8.5%.

Main Plan → 4,411 MT (2033)

Current baseline: 500 new farmers/yr & 11.59% NC.

Risk Case → 3,144 MT (2033)

Slower intake (400/yr) & higher NC (14.82%) shrinks supply.

Actual Sales vs. Farmer Estimates (%)

5-Yr Avg: 71.4%

Share of estimated paddy actually sold to IRCC (farmers deliver 71.4% on average, below the 80% rule of thumb; *2026 near-term).

Historical Variety Mix Evolution (2022–2026)

Procurement Shares

The dramatic commercial evolution of purchases over the past 5 seasons:

Phka Rumduol (Fragrant Jasmine): 87.2% (2022) → 46.5% (2026)

Traditionally the dominant crop; adjusted as farmers diversify to meet regional market demand.

White Rice: 8.7% (2022) → 40.2% (2026)

Surged rapidly; essential for IRCC to contract white rice to prevent non-organic sales leakage.

Red Jasmine: 0.8% (2022) → 11.8% (2026)

High-margin niche variety with excellent resilience in sandy soils.

Seed Paddy: 3.3% (2022) → 1.4% (2026)

Consistently maintained at 1.2%–1.5% to ensure certified pure seed stocks.

AFL and Paddy Purchase 2022 - 2026

Transition Incentive Budget (USD)

40% of total production: 200 KHR/kg (WF & Ibis I) • 250 KHR/kg (Ibis II).

4-Harvest-Cycle Conversion Pipeline

Farmers register Feb–May and complete 4 harvest cycles for full organic certification.

Year 0: Intake / Wildlife Friendly (WF)

Initial registration of ~500 new farmers annually (Jan–May), audit in Sept, first harvest in Nov. Paid 200 KHR per kg ($0.0488/kg) on 40% of total production.

Transition Year 1 (Ibis I)

Second in-conversion harvest cycle. Paid 200 KHR per kg ($0.0488/kg) conservation incentive on 40% of total farm production.

Transition Year 2 (Ibis II)

Third in-conversion harvest cycle. Paid 250 KHR per kg ($0.0610/kg) conservation incentive on 40% of total farm production.

Cycle 4 (Year 3+): Fully Organic (Selling Paddy)

Full 36-month certification achieved. Eligible to sell organic paddy to IRCC at guaranteed premium purchase prices.

Long-Term Paddy Purchase Forecast

Long-Term Paddy Purchase & Farmer Forecast (2027–2033)